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Turbulent Times, Rising Market

“Every human being has four endowments – self-awareness, conscience, independent will, and creative imagination. These give us the ultimate human freedom: The power to choose, to respond, to change.” ~ Steven Covey

On a weekly basis we are updating our chart plotting the growth rate in Covid-19 against the price of the S&P 500.  The market has been rallying for weeks after setting its 52-week low March 23rd and remains in a confirmed uptrend.  The S&P 500 has risen 40% from its bottom and is now down less than (5%) on the year. 

The chart below illustrates the price movement in the S&P 500 against the growth rate in the CDC’s reported number of Covid-19 cases. Indicated by the chart’s red line, the daily national growth rate in Covid-19 resumed its trend lower.  Growing at a daily average rate of 1.9% over the last week, while the number of people tested modestly decreased to a daily average of 387,164 for the period May 25th – 30th.  The Atlantic has organized the Covid Tracking Project which indicates decreasing Covid-19 tests nationally https://covidtracking.com/data/us-daily.  Against this backdrop the S&P 500 remains in a confirmed uptrend.  While more progress needs to be made battling the virus, such as even greater testing, growth in confirmed cases peaked at over 200% when the market set its 52-week low, March 23rd. 

Source: FactSet financial data and analytics

It’s uncertain how long this pattern will continue.  In our humble opinion the declining growth in cases along with the extraordinary measures taken by the Federal Reserve Bank have been driving the market higher these past weeks.  Progress continues to be made.  As parts of the nation continue to reopen, we will check for the slowing spread of Covid-19, as the S&P 500 progresses higher, retracing its losses. 


https://static.twentyoverten.com/5a4258bbacdea1742455dc1d/lcyhGyDmsIx/1554930607886.pngKevin T. Curran, CFA
President & Chief Investment Officer

Curran Investment Management® is Defining Quality®

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