Slowing Spread in Covid-19

“Everyone is entitled to his own opinion but not his own facts.” – U.S. Senator Daniel Patrick Moynihan

On a weekly basis we will be updating our chart plotting the growth rate in Covid-19 against the price of the S&P 500.  The market has been rallying for weeks after setting its 52-week low March 23rd.  The S&P 500 has risen 30% from its bottom and is now down less than (10%) on the year.   

The chart below illustrates the price movement in the S&P 500 against the growth rate in the CDC’s reported number of Covid-19 cases.  Indicated by the chart’s red line, the daily national growth rate in Covid-19 cases has continued to slow to 3.3% over the last week, while the number of people tested has remained stable.  Against this backdrop the S&P 500 remains in a confirmed uptrend.  While much more progress needs to be made battling the virus, such as greater testing, growth in confirmed cases peaked at over 200% when the market set its 52-week low, March 23rd.

Source: FactSet financial data and analytics

It’s uncertain how long this pattern will continue.  In our humble opinion the declining growth in cases along with the extraordinary measures taken by the Federal Reserve Bank have been driving the market higher these past weeks.  Progress continues to be made.  As parts of the nation begin to reopen, we will continue to watch for the slowing spread of Covid-19, and the S&P 500’s progress higher as it retraces its losses.  

Sincerely,

Kevin T. Curran, CFA

President & Chief Investment Officer

Curran Investment Management® is Defining Quality®

Please check with your Curran Wealth relationship manager, or contact Curran Wealth Management if you have any questions. 518.391.4200 • info@curranllc.com

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