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Business Conditions Index 12/26/19

 "The individual investor should act consistently as an investor and not as a speculator."   Ben Graham

The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia regularly updates business conditions in the United States.  Curran Investment Management believes it is a useful metric measure to determine the health of the economy.

Our view continues to be the United States is in the early stages of a great investment and savings cycle that will sustain continued growth.  After years of consumer spending being the primary catalyst, the economy is now being supported by more investment and is slowly weaning itself away from consumption based growth.

Now both investment and saving are proving to be drivers of growth.  Of course we need both consumption and investment.  One without the other is simply not sustainable.  The financial crisis ended the consumption cycle and gave birth to investment and saving while reducing consumption.

Along the way to further growth we anticipate a number of bear markets that should be seen as normal.  When they occur they probably will seem much worse if only because we have gone more than 10 years without a decline of more than 20%.

In the depths of the financial crisis we said then and continue to say today: “Get ready for a great bull run.”

Yes, there will eventually be a bear market and yes, it is past due using history as a guide.  But bear markets in long term bull markets are not as long nor do they decline as much.  The next bear should prove to be not worthy of mention in historical terms nor in future terms.


Thomas J. Curran    Kevin T. Curran, CFA

CEO & Founder       President & CIO

Please check with your Curran Wealth relationship manager, or contact Curran Wealth Management if you have any questions. 518.391.4200 • info@curranllc.com 

The material contained in this article is for educational and informational purposes only.  The information herein is considered to be obtained from reference sources deemed reliable, but no representation or warranty is made as to its accuracy or completeness.  This article is not, and should not be regarded as “investment advice” or construed as a “recommendation” or an offer to buy or sell a security.  The information contained in this article may not apply to your personal circumstances.  Before making any decision or taking any action, you should consult a professional advisor who has been provided with all pertinent facts relevant to your particular situation.  Information on taxes is based on the tax laws existing at the time of publication.  Tax laws are subject to continual change.  In addition, tax laws vary by state.  This article is not, and should not be regarded as tax or legal advice.  We cannot ensure tax consequences of any transaction.  If you would like a detailed analysis of your tax situation, with specific tax recommendations, you can discuss the possibility of pursuing a formal relationship with Hippo Tax Services, LLC.